Republican Bob Stefanowski has taken a 2.4 percentage lead over Democrat Ned Lamont in the latest Sacred Heart University gubernatorial poll – the first time Stefanowski has led in SHU’s polling.
The fourth and final gubernatorial poll from SHU’s Institute for Public Policy, commissioned in conjunction with Hearst Connecticut Media, shows continued momentum for Stefanowski as the Nov. 6 election nears. The previous SHU poll, published a little over a week ago, showed Lamont ahead by 3.4 points, while its September poll found him leading by 6.2 points.
The new poll was conducted Oct. 29-31 among likely voters. GreatBlue Research Inc. conducted the Connecticut-specific telephone survey on behalf of the SHU Institute for Public Policy, interviewing 500 residents statewide from Oct. 29-31 who indicated that they were “likely” to vote in the 2018 election for governor. Statistically, a sample of 500 telephone interviews represents a margin for error of +/-4.32 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
The most recent Quinnipiac University poll, released at the end of October, also found the race to be a statistical dead heat.
Stefanowski’s support among unaffiliated voters has remained steady over the past few weeks, as 43.6 percent currently support the Republican candidate for governor, compared with 43.2 percent in early October. In September, 36.5 percent of unaffiliated voters indicated support for Stefanowski.
Lamont’s lead among female voters has decreased to 40.8 percent compared with 50 percent in October. Male voters continue to support Stefanowski at a rate of 45.2 percent compared with 34.4 percent who support Lamont.
Currently, 38.4 percent of Connecticut voters have a “favorable” view of Lamont compared with 40.8 percent who have an “unfavorable” view of him. The poll shows 41.6 percent of likely voters have a “favorable” view of Stefanowski, while 34.4 percent have an “unfavorable” view. Voters with a favorable view of Stefanowski increased from 34.9 percent in October.
If the election took place today, 9 percent of voters indicated they would vote for independent candidate Oz Griebel.
The top issues driving voters’ decisions at the poll continue to be the high overall tax burden (17.6 percent), the state budget crisis (17.6 percent) and low economic growth in Connecticut (12.6 percent).